I have noted elsewhere that its best to ignore macro-model simulations about the impact of tariffs when the exports are dominated by one sector, as is the case in Ireland; Chemicals and related products (call it Pharma) amounted to 75% of Irish merchandise exports in the year to May, with some two-thirds of Pharma going to the US. Better then to concentrate on the market conditions for that sector.
A key factor is how demand is affected by a change in price and studies in the US show a very limited response ; price elasticity is very low, at around -0.15%, So a 10% rise in price would reduce demand by only 1.5%, implying that if all of the 15% proposed tariff on EU goods was imposed demand would fall by just 2.25%.
A second issue is whether sellers will absorb some of the tariff in lower profits, in turn impacted by profit margins, which in the case of Pharma are huge, often at 40% or more . So Pharma companies, if they choose, may not pass on all the tariff to the consumer.
Finally, Irish Pharma exports now include weight loss drugs, the demand for which is soaring, which is a further argument supporting the view that the tariff impact on exports (leaving aside that on sentiment) has been exaggerated.