ECB opens door to rate increases.

Today’s ECB press conference (3 Feb 2022) marked a very significant change in ECB rhetoric, and it now looks far more likely that interest rates are on the way up; the market is currently priced for short term rates to be 0.3% higher by year-end and to turn positive by the spring of 2023.

That may or may not materialise but it is clear that the recent upside surprises to EA inflation has shaken the ECB’s previous belief that inflation would fall steadily in the early months of 2022. That view had prompted President Lagarde to state that it was ‘highly unlikely’ that rates would rise at all this year, but when asked she refused to reiterate that line, arguing now that ‘the situation had changed’ and that the ECB was data dependent. Lagarde also noted a few times that the unemployment rate in the EA had fallen to a historic low of 7%, thus raising the risk of ‘second round’ effects i.e. higher wages feeding into higher costs and prices.

Inflation is now deemed subject to ‘upside risks’ and given that and the overall hawkish tone it was odd to see that the monetary policy statement still included the line ‘the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels‘ (my italics), presumably an oversight.

The March meeting now assumes greater importance, as that will include updated Staff forecasts. The inflation projection for this year will almost certainly be revised much higher(it was 3.2% in the last forecast) but the crucial factor will be the figure for 2024, which was 1.8% and hence below target but could now move up to 2% or above.

The timing of any rate increase is complicated somewhat by the present ECB commitment to end QE before raising rates. The PEPP ends next month but as it stands there is no end-date fixed for net asset purchases, which from October are set at €20bn a month. So to raise rates this year the Governing council would first have to terminate net purchases.

What does this mean for Irish mortgage rates?. Any initial moves by the ECB would be through the deposit rate, which would affect market rates and hence new variable mortgage rates and new fixed rates. The refinancing rate, which affects Tracker mortgages would be unchanged initially but would probably rise as well as we move into 2023. This is not set in stone and weaker economic growth or a spike out in government borrowing costs might change things, but as its stands it appears the ECB is likely to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later.

168 thoughts on “ECB opens door to rate increases.”

  2. Wow, marvelous blog layout! How long have you been blogging for? you make blogging look easy. The overall look of your site is wonderful, let alone the content!

  3. fantastic post, very informative. I wonder why the other experts of this sector do not notice this. You must continue your writing. I’m sure, you’ve a huge readers’ base already!

  4. Thanks for your ideas. One thing I’ve got noticed is banks as well as financial institutions know the dimensions and spending behaviors of consumers and understand that a lot of people max out and about their cards around the vacations. They smartly take advantage of this real fact and start flooding your current inbox as well as snail-mail box together with hundreds of 0 APR credit cards offers shortly when the holiday season concludes. Knowing that if you are like 98 of American community, you’ll leap at the opportunity to consolidate credit debt and move balances towards 0 apr interest rates credit cards.

  5. I抦 not that much of a online reader to be honest but your blogs really nice, keep it up! I’ll go ahead and bookmark your website to come back later on. Many thanks

  6. The things i have seen in terms of laptop or computer memory is that often there are specific features such as SDRAM, DDR and so forth, that must fit in with the specifications of the motherboard. If the personal computer’s motherboard is kind of current and there are no operating system issues, replacing the memory space literally normally requires under one hour. It’s among the easiest laptop or computer upgrade techniques one can think about. Thanks for expressing your ideas.

  13. I was recommended this website by my cousin. I am no longer positive whether this put up is written by way of him as no one else know such exact approximately my difficulty. You’re amazing! Thanks!

  14. Aw, this was a really nice post. In idea I wish to put in writing like this additionally ?taking time and actual effort to make an excellent article?but what can I say?I procrastinate alot and certainly not seem to get one thing done.

  15. Умереть и не встать сегодняшнем стройке никак неважный (=маловажный) ограничиться в течение отсутствии башенного крана. Чуть только только со его поддержкой эвентуально вручить серьезные строй субстанции в течение значительную высоту умереть и не встать точную ямыжник в течение шеренга месте. Невозможно преуменьшать важность крана, так яко только некто перемещает могучая часть тяжких предметов согласно местности стройки.
    [url]https://dictionaries.rin.ru/novosti/59634/Vidy_mostovyh_kranov.html[/url]
    [url]https://github.com/dimaldimal[/url]
    [url]http://ladysarafan.ru/dom/gruzovye-elektromagnity-ot-proizvoditelya[/url]

    http://dogster.ru/publ/517/

  17. Формальный фотоблог букмекерской компаний Единица шестым чувством доступный. Юзеры владеют шиздец перевес просто осознать, гораздо вызывать, чтобы того чтоб сформировать учетную отметка, хотя эквивалентно яко совершить ставку. Кроме этого на сайте букмекера умереть и не встать каждой период возможно прочесть условия офферты, умереть и не встать нынешнем численности хоть тесно ут регистрации, чтобы того чтоб смекнуть, на экой уровня этая электроплатформа согласен умереть и не встать только занимающемся случае.
    зеркало бк

  20. Мы оказываем комплексные event-услуги по принципу «одного окна» — напрямую и без лишних посредников. Каждый проект «Империи-Сочи» — это уникальное креативное решение поставленных задач!
    event агентство Наша компания предлагает несколько вариантов наполнения столов для кофе-брейка на бизнес-мероприятиях, мастер-классах и тренингах. Это дает возможность выбрать ту версию угощений, которая подчеркнет характер события, порадует гостей и создаст позитивный имидж компании.

    Также, учитывая сезонность и пожелания заказчика, мы составляем меню идеальных комплексных корпоративных обедов, которые готовятся на наших собственных точках общепита и доставляются в назначенное время.

  21. Мы работаем в Москве и предлагаем проектирование маршевых и других видов деревянной лестницы, ее непосредственное изготовление и установку на месте. Возможен выезд мастера в ближайший пригород (детали уточняйте у консультанта). Примеры реализованных проектов вы сможете просмотреть на нашем сайте в соответствующих разделах.
    отделка бетонных лестниц деревом цена Особенности и преимущества использования дерева в декорировании различных помещений
    Современная отделка интерьеров натуральным деревом – выигрышный способ обновить и облагородить пространство жилого помещения или помещения, предназначенного для общественного пользования.

  22. Девушка таялаот похоти, когда познакомилась с новым брутальным жильцом
    тут

  26. Кайфонув от минета, чел ебет любовницу на столе и мощно кончает в рот порно

  27. Заказать кухню в Москве от производителя по индивидуальным размерам! Бесплатный замер и дизайн-проект, гарантия 10 лет, надежная фурнитура и экологичность gidroabrazivnaya.ru

    кухни каталог

  29. Новостным сайтом не может считаться первый попавшийся ресурс. В соответствии с законом «О средствах массовой информации», принятым в последней редакции Государственной Думой РФ 3 июня 2011 года, для регистрации сайта в качестве СМИ его владельцы должны подать соответствующее заявление. При отсутствии регистрации Роскомнадзора, сайт юридически не является СМИ и не имеет прав аккредитованного ресурса.

    https://ruposters.ru/news

  41. skechers near me
    Skechers is an American sports and unpredictable footwear company. If gladden is your thing, Skechers shoes are scrupulously what you need. If you’ve under no circumstances had a wager to assay the plenty of these shoes, don’t scruple and cause yourself a pair!

  50. Сost to install windows Coronation of PVC windows is the most touch-and-go stage of structure structures in modish homes because it mostly depends on the assuage and convenience of living tenants. This article tells there what problems the owners of supple windows again bear to deal with.
    Every year, mammoth cities are growing, and more modern apartment buildings are.

  68. Hi! I could have sworn I’ve been to this website before but after checking through some of the post I realized it’s new to me.

    Nonetheless, I’m definitely delighted I found it and I’ll be
    book-marking and checking back frequently!

  142. Thank you, I’ve recently been searching for info about this subject
    for a while and yours is the greatest I have came upon till
    now. But, what concerning the bottom line? Are you positive in regards to the source?

  157. I suffer from chronic migraines and include tried numerous medications with midget success. A friend recommended CBD, so I decided to admit defeat give out it a try. I was amazed at how speedily it helped to alleviate my migraine wretchedness and nausea. I second buying CBD grease regularly as a preventative scale, and be experiencing noticed a consequential de-escalate in the frequency and severity of my migraines. I hugely guide CBD for the sake anyone looking in support of a unartificial another to stock migraine medications.

  159. I’ve been using CBD in behalf of a handful months under and I can sincerely conjecture it has мейд a impressive inequality in my daily life. I take continuing back tribulation and desire, and irresistible does delta 8 show up on a drug test CBD grease has helped to ease both of these issues. It’s a unpretentious and ok variant to formula medication, and I admire that it doesn’t organize any psychoactive effects. Inclusive, I extremely propose giving CBD a assay if you’re looking for a ordinary distance to take care of pain or anxiety.

  160. CBD, or cannabidiol, has been a meeting changer for me. I’ve struggled with longing into years and secure tried sundry opposite medications, https://mjcbdd.com/products/delta-8-joints but nothing has worked as fount as CBD. It helps me to crave undisturbed and devil-may-care without any side effects. I also espy that it helps with take and trial management. I’ve tried some brands, but I’ve bring about that the ones that are lab tested and take a careful position are the most effective. Inclusive, I highly vouch for CBD in behalf of anyone who struggles with anxiety, sleep issues, or lasting pain.

  161. So, I have cbd research and I compel ought to cause SEO as a replacement for my website! I found the most outstanding CBD SEO Agency ! They ranking in the ZENITH in Google USA

    local seo companies

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.