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 Irish Petrol Price Indicator

 

Energy prices account for over 10% of the Irish CPI and tend to be much more volatile than the other components. Petrol and diesel are the most visible of these prices and  , in what is largely a competitive retail market for motor fuel,  are determined by a number of factors, including; 

The price of Crude oil 

The euro/ dollar exchange rate 

Refinery margins 

The Tax component 

The degree of local competition 

We have developed a model of the average retail price of fuel in Ireland, based on movements in the US dollar price of Brent, the euro/ dollar exchange rate, the tax components and the wholesale price of fuel. It is designed to give an indication of the average price of petrol per litre over the next week to 10 days. Local competitive factors  will obviously generate a range of prices around the average level. 

 

Latest Update  10 January 2019

Crude prices had been supported by an OPEC agreement to cut production but demand expectations have shifted lower and inventories have started to rise, prompting an unwind of speculative long positions. Brent has fallen from over $80 and has traded well below $60, taking Irish retail prices down to around €1.33. The  euro/dollar rate appears to have stabilised above  €1.14, so supporting the downward move in crude  for European buyers but Brent appears oversold and has moved back up to arond $60, implying that  Irish  petrol prices may tick higher,to €1.36..

 Projected Irish Petrol price:  €1.36

 Projected Irish Diesel price :€1.30