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 Irish Petrol Price Indicator

Energy prices account for over 10% of the Irish CPI and tend to be much more volatile than the other components. Petrol and diesel are the most visible of these prices and  , in what is largely a competitive retail market for motor fuel,  are determined by a number of factors, including; 

The price of Crude oil 

The euro/ dollar exchange rate 

Refinery margins 

The Tax component 

The degree of local competition 

We have developed a model of the average retail price of fuel in Ireland, based on movements in the US dollar price of Brent, the euro/ dollar exchange rate, the tax components and the wholesale price of fuel. It is designed to give an indication of the average price of petrol per litre over the next week to 10 days. Local competitive factors  will obviously generate a range of prices around the average level. 

 

Latest Update  27 April 2020

Crude prices had been supported by an OPEC agreement to cut production, US sanctions against Iranian exports and tensions in the Middle East. Demand expectations have now collapsed given the expected impact of the Coronavirus on Chinese  and global growth. This had put downward pressure  on crude and the fall turned into a rout as Opec's and Russia's agreement to cut output was deemed insufficient to prevent a sizeable oil glut. Brent has traded below €25 which is consistent with much lower Irish retail prices.

 Projected Irish Petrol price:  €1.21

 Projected Irish Diesel price :€1.12