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 Irish Petrol Price Indicator

 

Energy prices account for over 10% of the Irish CPI and tend to be much more volatile than the other components. Petrol and diesel are the most visible of these prices and  , in what is largely a competitive retail market for motor fuel,  are determined by a number of factors, including; 

The price of Crude oil 

The euro/ dollar exchange rate 

Refinery margins 

The Tax component 

The degree of local competition 

We have developed a model of the average retail price of fuel in Ireland, based on movements in the US dollar price of Brent, the euro/ dollar exchange rate, the tax components and the wholesale price of fuel. It is designed to give an indication of the average price of petrol per litre over the next week to 10 days. Local competitive factors  will obviously generate a range of prices around the average level. 

 

Latest Update  15 September 2017

Crude prices are being supported by an OPEC agreement to cut production, although that has reduced rather than eliminated excess supply in the market. Brent has traded in a broad $45- $55 range this year, and has recovered  of late from the lower end  of the range to  test $55.Refined products have also risen in price relative to crude oil in the wake of hurricane damage to US refineries.The euro/ dollar exchange rate has appreciated, offsetting this impact to some degree,rallying to around $1.20, against a backdrop of broad dollar weakness.Our forecast is for Irish  petrol prices to rise to around  €1.36 per litre, with diesel at €1.12

 Projected Irish Petrol price:  €1.36 per litre

 Projected Irish Diesel price :€1.22 per litre