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 Irish Petrol Price Indicator


Energy prices account for over 10% of the Irish CPI and tend to be much more volatile than the other components. Petrol and diesel are the most visible of these prices and  , in what is largely a competitive retail market for motor fuel,  are determined by a number of factors, including; 

The price of Crude oil 

The euro/ dollar exchange rate 

Refinery margins 

The Tax component 

The degree of local competition 

We have developed a model of the average retail price of fuel in Ireland, based on movements in the US dollar price of Brent, the euro/ dollar exchange rate, the tax components and the wholesale price of fuel. It is designed to give an indication of the average price of petrol per litre over the next week to 10 days. Local competitive factors  will obviously generate a range of prices around the average level. 


Latest Update  17 May 2018

Crude prices are being supported by an OPEC agreement to cut production, and demand is also rising given the broad global economic upturn,with the geo-political situation in the Middle East adding additional speculative buying. Brent had traded in a broad $63- $68 range over recent months but broke above $70 in mid-April and is now around $80. The impact on European petrol prices has been compounded by a stronger US dollar, with the euro falling from $1.25 to around $1.18. Consequently we  expect  Irish  petrol prices to rise further , to around  €1.49 per litre, with diesel at €1.38, absent a quick reversal in crude prices.

 Projected Irish Petrol price:  €1.49 per litre

 Projected Irish Diesel price :€1.38 per litre