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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated following  2018 Q3 GDP release

Real GDP (% change) 2017  2018(e)  2019(f) Comment
   Personal Consumption  1.6 3.2 2.5 Consumers cautious and savings ratio is rising
   Government Consumption 3.9 4.5 4.0 Govt spending corporate tax windfall
   Capital Formation  -31.0 6.2 6.7 High volatility
   -  Building and Construction  16.5  16.8  10.0 Strong rise in house building from low base
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles -41.4 1.6  5.0 Huge swings in Intangibles and aircraft
  Stocks (% of GDP)  1.3  1.0  0.8  
  Exports 7.8 9.0 5.0 Contract manufacturing big impact
  Imports  -9.4 8.0 5.5 Import surge on Intangibles and aircraft
  GDP  7.2  6.5 3.8 Slower annual growth in H2
  GNP 4.4 6.6 4.0  
         
  Final Domestic Demand  -13.3 4.1 4.0 Distorted by investment volatility
  GDP (€bn)  294.1  318.4 335.4  
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  3.0  2.4 Broad based job creation
   Unemployment rate (%)  6.7 5.6 5.1 Net immigration boosting labour force
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.4 0.5 1.5 Sterling deflationary impact to fade
   HICP (% change)
0.3 0.7 1.5  Remarkably low relative to Euro average
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
68.4 64.0 61.4 Ratio flattered by surge in GDP
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
-0.2 -0.1 0.0