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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated following  2017 Q2 GDP release

Real GDP (% change) 2016  2017  2018 Comment
   Personal Consumption  3.3 2.0  2.5 weak first half of 2017
   Government Consumption 5.3 2.0 2.0 Deflator rising
   Capital Formation  61.2  4.0 10.0 High volatility
   -  Building and Construction  18.4  20.0  15.0 Strong rise from weak base
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles 76.7  0.0  9.0 Huge swings in intangibles
  Stocks (% of GDP)  1.0  0.3  0.3  
  Exports 4.6  2.0 4.0 Erratic series given multinationals
  Imports  16.4  0.0 5.5  weaker service imports
  GDP  5.1 3.8  3.9 Large  quarterly base effects o dampen h2
  GNP  9.6  1.5 3.5 Firms domiciling in Ireland impacting
         
  Domestic Demand  21.4 2.8  5.7 Distorted by investment surge
  GDP (€bn)  275.6  291.2 303.0 Up €100bn since 2012
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  3.1  2.5 Broad based job creation
   Unemployment rate (%)  7.9 6.5  5.8 Approaching full employment
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.0 0.7 2.0 Sterling deflationary impact this year
   HICP (% change)
-0.2 0.6 2.0  
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
72.8 69.6 65.8 Ratio flattered by surge in GDP
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
-0.7 -0.4 -0.1 Cyclically adjusted deficit is larger