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Irish Macro Economic Forecasts
Updated following 2018 Q4 GDP release
| Real GDP (% change) | 2017 | 2018 |
2019(f) | Comment |
| Personal Consumption | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | Consumers cautious and savings ratio is rising |
| Government Consumption | 3.9 | 6.4 | 4.0 | Govt spending corporate tax windfall |
| Capital Formation | -31.0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | High volatility |
| - Building and Construction | 16.5 | 15.9 | 11.0 | Growth gradually easing |
| - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles | -41.4 | 7.1 | 9.5 | Huge swings in Intangibles and aircraft |
| Stocks (% of GDP) | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
| Exports | 7.8 | 8.9 | 7.0 | Contract manufacturing big impact |
| Imports | -9.4 | 7.0 | 9.0 | Import surge on Intangibles and aircraft |
| GDP | 7.2 | 6.7 | 5.0 | Domestic spending vulnerable to Brexit |
| GNP | 4.4 | 5.9 | 5.5 | |
| Final Domestic Demand | -13.3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | Distorted by investment volatility |
| GDP (€bn) | 294.1 | 318.5 | 333.6 | |
| Labour Market | ||||
| Employment (% change) | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.8 | Job creation slowed in h2 2018 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | Unemployment recently revised higher |
| Inflation | ||||
| CPI (% change) |
0.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | Sterling deflationary impact to fade |
| HICP (% change) |
0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | Remarkably low relative to Euro average |
| Fiscal Indicators |
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| Government Debt ( % of GDP) |
68.4 | 64.5 | 62.8 | Ratio flattered by surge in GDP |
| General Government Balance (% of GDP) |
-0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 |