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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated following  2019 q2 GDP release

Real GDP (% change) 2018  2019(e)
 2020(f) Comment
   Personal Consumption  3.4 2.8 2.5 Consumers cautious and savings ratio rising
   Government Consumption 4.4 3.5 2.0 Govt spending corporate tax windfall
   Capital Formation  -21.1 42.0 1.2 High volatility
   -  Building and Construction  12.5  7.0  5.0 Growth gradually easing
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles -30.4 38.0 0.0 Huge swings in Intangibles and aircraft
  Stocks (% of GDP)  0.4  0.5  0.4  
  Exports 10.4 12.0 7.0 Contract manufacturing big impact
  Imports  -2.9 23.0 7.0 Volatility reflects  capital formation
   GDP 8.2  5.6 3.2 Brexit a key risk for domestic spending
  GNP 4.4 4.1 2.0  
         
  Final Domestic Demand  -8.6 16.8 1.7 Distorted by investment volatility
  GDP (€bn) 324.0  342.0 354.0  
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  2.6 1.5 Slowing
  Unemployment rate (%) 5.8 5.2 5.2 At or near full employment
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.5 1.2 2.1 Sterling deflationary impact to fade
   HICP (% change)
0.7 1.2 2.1 remarkably low to date relative to euro average
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
63.6 61.3 60.0 Ratio flattered by surge in GDP
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
0.0 0.2 -0.6  2020 deficit if hard Brexit