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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated mid-January 2021 

Real GDP (% change) 2019  2020(e)
 2021(f) Comment
   Personal Consumption  3.2 -7.5 10.0 Jump in savings ratio to partially unwind
   Government Consumption 6.3 9.0 5.0 Govt spending surge to support economy
   Capital Formation  74.8 -14.0 23.0  extraordinarily volatile
   -  Building and Construction  6.8  -10.0 12.0  Lockdown impact
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles 133.6 -15.0 25.0  now dominated by Intangibles
  Stocks (% of GDP)  0.5  1.3  0.8  
  Exports 10.5 5.0 8.0 Proving  remarkably resilient
  Imports  32.4 -3.2 13.0 will rebound with domestic demand
  GDP 5.5 4.0 7.0 Base effects will be positive
  GNP 3.3 2.0 9.0  
         
  Domestic Demand 32.4 -8.3 15.0  
  GDP (€bn) 356.2  365.0 397.0  
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  -2.5 1.5  
  Unemployment rate (%) 4.9 6.0 6.7  Official rate , not Covid related estimate
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.9 -0.4 0.5  Collapse in oil prices big factor
   HICP (% change)
0.7 -0.5 0.7  
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
58.8 60.0 60.5  r<g for some time now
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
0.4 -5.2 -3.8 Budget growth assumptions too low