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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated following  2019 q1 GDP release

Real GDP (% change) 2018  2019(e)
 2020(f) Comment
   Personal Consumption  3.4 3.0 3.0 Consumers cautious and savings ratio rising
   Government Consumption 4.4 3.5 3.0 Govt spending corporate tax windfall
   Capital Formation  -21.1 -1.0 8.3 High volatility
   -  Building and Construction  12.5  7.0  5.0 Growth gradually easing
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles -30.4 -6.0 10.0 Huge swings in Intangibles and aircraft
  Stocks (% of GDP)  0.4  0.5  0.4  
  Exports 10.4 12.0 7.0 Contract manufacturing big impact
  Imports  -2.9 12.0 8.0 volatility reflects capital formation
   GDP 8.2  5.6 4.5 Brexit a key risk
  GNP 4.4 5.9 5.5  
         
  Final Domestic Demand  -8.6 1.8 4.4 Distorted by investment volatility
  GDP (€bn) 324.0  338.6 359.5  
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  3.0 2.2 Very strong job creation in q1 2019
  Unemployment rate (%) 5.8 4.5 4.2 At or near full employment
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.5 1.0 1.8 Sterling deflationary impact to fade
   HICP (% change)
0.7 1.0 1.8  Remarkably low relative to Euro average
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
63.6 61.9 57.3 Ratio flattered by surge in GDP
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
0.0 0.2 0.4  2020 deficit if hard Brexit