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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated mid-September 2020 

Real GDP (% change) 2019  2020(e)
 2021(f) Comment
   Personal Consumption  3.2 -12.0 8.0 Non-food spending collapse in Lockdown
   Government Consumption 6.3 10.0 3.0 Govt spending surge to support economy
   Capital Formation  74.8 24.0 -21.0  extraordinarily volatile
   -  Building and Construction  6.8  -6.5 5.0  strong start but 35% fall in q2
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles 133.6 30.0 -25.0  largely GDP neutral as mostly imports
  Stocks (% of GDP)  0.5  1.2  0.9  
  Exports 10.5 2.0 4.0 Proving resilient to date.
  Imports  32.4 10.0 -6.5 dampened by fall in consumption
  GDP 5.5 -1.5 3.8 coronavirus longevity big unknown
  GNP 3.3 -3.0 4.0  
         
  Domestic Demand 32.4 10.0 -10.0  
  GDP (€bn) 356.2  352.0 367.0  
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  -2.3 0.5  
  Unemployment rate (%) 4.9 5.8 7.1  
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.9 -0.3 0.9  Collapse in oil prices main factor
   HICP (% change)
0.7 -0.5 1.0  
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
58.8 62.4 62.7  
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
0.4 -6.0 -4.0  Tax well ahead of profile