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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated mid-April 2021 

Real GDP (% change) 2019  2020(e)
 2021(f) Comment
   Personal Consumption  3.2 -9.0 6.5 Jump in savings ratio to partially unwind
   Government Consumption 6.3 9.8 6.5 Govt spending surge to support economy
   Capital Formation  74.8 -32.3 15.0  extraordinarily volatile
   -  Building and Construction  8.0  -9.1 -9.5  Lockdown impact
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles 98.7 -37.0 22.0  now dominated by Intangibles
  Stocks (% of GDP)  0.5  1.5  1.0  
  Exports 10.5 6.2 7.0 Proving  remarkably resilient
  Imports  32.4 -11.3 9.3 will rebound with domestic demand
  GDP 5.5 3.4 6.5  
  GNP 3.3 0.6 7.5  
         
  Domestic Demand 32.4 -18.1 9.4  
  GDP (€bn) 356.2  366.5 399.0  
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  -1.2 -0.8  
  Unemployment rate (%) 4.9 5.6 6.8  Official rate , not Covid related estimate
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.9 -0.3 0.9  Collapse in oil prices big factor last year
   HICP (% change)
0.7 -0.5 1.1  
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
58.8 59.6 62.0  r<g for some time now
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
0.4 -5.0. -4..2 Budget growth assumptions too low