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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated mid-June 2021 

Real GDP (% change) 2020  2021(e)
 2022(f) Comment
   Personal Consumption -9.0 4.0 6.0 Jump in savings ratio to partially unwind
   Government Consumption 9.8 6.5 4.0 Govt spending surge to fade
   Capital Formation -32.3 2.0 15.0  extraordinarily volatile
   -  Building and Construction -9.1  -10.0 15.0  Lockdown impact
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles -37.0 5.0 15.0  now dominated by Intangibles
  Stocks (% of GDP)  0.5  1.5  1.0  
  Exports 6.2 12.0 7.0 Proving  remarkably resilient
  Imports -11.3 8.5 9.0 will rebound with domestic demand
  GDP 3.4 9.5 6.2  
  GNP 0.6 6.0 7.0  
         
  Domestic Demand -18.1 3.0 9.0  
  GDP (€bn) 366.5  393.0 424.0  
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  -1.2  -0.6 -0.8  
  Unemployment rate (%) 5.6 6.2 5.7  Official rate , not Covid related estimate
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
-0.3 1.5 1.5  Collapse in oil prices big factor last year
   HICP (% change)
-0.5 1.6 1.4  
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
59.6 60.4 59.0  r<g for some time now
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
-5.0 -4.1. -2.8 Budget growth assumptions too low