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Irish Macro Economic Forecasts
Updated following 2018 Q1 GDP release
| Real GDP (% change) | 2017 | 2018(e) | 2019(f) | Comment |
| Personal Consumption | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | Lagging strong income growth |
| Government Consumption | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | Austerity over |
| Capital Formation | -31.0 | 1.5 | 6.7 | High volatility |
| - Building and Construction | 16.5 | 13.5 | 10.0 | Strong rise in house building from low base |
| - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles | -41.4 | -4.0 | 5.0 | Huge swings in Intangibles |
| Stocks (% of GDP) | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | |
| Exports | 7.8 | 6.0 | 5.0 | Contract manufacturing big impact |
| Imports | -9.4 | 2.5 | 5.5 | Service imports volatile |
| GDP | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.6 | Lower base effect in 2018 following revisions |
| GNP | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.2 | Higher profit outflows |
| Final Domestic Demand | -13.3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | Distorted by investment volatility |
| GDP (€bn) | 294.1 | 317.6 | 334.2 | 2017 revised down |
| Labour Market | ||||
| Employment (% change) | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 | Broad based job creation |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 6.7 | 5.5 | 4.8 | Downside surprise in 2018 |
| Inflation | ||||
| CPI (% change) |
0.4 | 0.6 | 1.8 | Sterling deflationary impact to fade |
| HICP (% change) |
0.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | Remarkably low relative to Euro average |
| Fiscal Indicators |
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| Government Debt ( % of GDP) |
68.4 | 63.4 | 59.8 | Ratio flattered by surge in GDP |
| General Government Balance (% of GDP) |
-0.4 | -0.2 | 0.0 | Cyclically adjusted deficit is larger |