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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated mid-March 2020 

Real GDP (% change) 2018  2019
 2020(f) Comment
   Personal Consumption  3.4 2.8 3.2 strong income growth not reflected in spending
   Government Consumption 4.4 5.6 3.0 Govt spending corporate tax windfall
   Capital Formation  -21.1 94.1 16.5 High volatility
   -  Building and Construction  12.5  6.8  4.0 supply constraints in construction
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles -30.4 133.6 20.0 Huge swings in Intangibles and aircraft
  Stocks (% of GDP)  0.4  0.5  0.4  
  Exports 10.4 11.1 9.0 Contract manufacturing big impact
  Imports  -2.9 35.6 13.0 Volatility reflects  capital formation
   GDP 8.2  5.5 4.5 coronavirus impact huge unknown
  GNP 4.4 3.3 4.1  
         
  Domestic Demand  -8.6 35.3 8.5 Distorted by investment volatility
  GDP (€bn) 324.0  347.2 367.0  
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  2.9 2.0  
  Unemployment rate (%) 5.8 4.9 4.8 At or near full employment
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.5 0.9 1.3 Sterling deflationary impact to fade
   HICP (% change)
0.7 0.9 1.3 remarkably low to date relative to euro average
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
63.6 58.6 55.6 Ratio flattered by surge in GDP
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
0.0 0.4 0.0  2020 Budget looks redundant