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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated following  2017 Q3 GDP release

Real GDP (% change) 2016  2017  2018 Comment
   Personal Consumption  3.3 2.2  2.5 picking up after weak first of 2017
   Government Consumption 5.3 2.0 2.5 Deflator rising
   Capital Formation  61.2  -9.0 10.5 High volatility
   -  Building and Construction  18.4  15.0  15.0 Strong rise in house building
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles 76.7 -15.0  9.0 Huge swings in intangibles
  Stocks (% of GDP)  1.0  0.9  0.3  
  Exports 4.6 3.5 4.5 Contract manufacturing very important
  Imports  16.4 -4.0 5.5 Weaker service imports in 2017
  GDP  5.1 6.5  3.7 Big upward revison after q3 data
  GNP  9.6  4.5 3.5 Firms domiciling in Ireland impacting
         
  Final Domestic Demand  21.4 -2.5  5.5 Distorted by investment volaitility
  GDP (€bn)  275.6  295.0 308.0 Up €100bn since 2012
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  2.7  2.2 Broad based job creation
   Unemployment rate (%)  7.9 6.5  5.8 Approaching full employment
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.0 0.4 1.5 Sterling deflationary impact to fade
   HICP (% change)
-0.2 0.3 1.7  
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
72.8 68.4 63.0 Ratio flattered by surge in GDP
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
-0.7 -0.1 -0.1 Cyclically adjusted deficit is larger