Irish Macro Economic Forecasts
Updated mid-January 2021
| Real GDP (% change) | 2019 | 2020(e) |
2021(f) | Comment |
| Personal Consumption | 3.2 | -7.5 | 10.0 | Jump in savings ratio to partially unwind |
| Government Consumption | 6.3 | 9.0 | 5.0 | Govt spending surge to support economy |
| Capital Formation | 74.8 | -14.0 | 23.0 | extraordinarily volatile |
| - Building and Construction | 6.8 | -10.0 | 12.0 | Lockdown impact |
| - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles | 133.6 | -15.0 | 25.0 | now dominated by Intangibles |
| Stocks (% of GDP) | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | |
| Exports | 10.5 | 5.0 | 8.0 | Proving remarkably resilient |
| Imports | 32.4 | -3.2 | 13.0 | will rebound with domestic demand |
| GDP | 5.5 | 4.0 | 7.0 | Base effects will be positive |
| GNP | 3.3 | 2.0 | 9.0 | |
| Domestic Demand | 32.4 | -8.3 | 15.0 | |
| GDP (€bn) | 356.2 | 365.0 | 397.0 | |
| Labour Market | ||||
| Employment (% change) | 2.9 | -2.5 | 1.5 | |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 4.9 | 6.0 | 6.7 | Official rate , not Covid related estimate |
| Inflation | ||||
| CPI (% change) |
0.9 | -0.4 | 0.5 | Collapse in oil prices big factor |
| HICP (% change) |
0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | |
| Fiscal Indicators |
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| Government Debt ( % of GDP) |
58.8 | 60.0 | 60.5 | r<g for some time now |
| General Government Balance (% of GDP) |
0.4 | -5.2 | -3.8 | Budget growth assumptions too low |