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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated following  2018 Q4 GDP release

Real GDP (% change) 2017  2018
 2019(f) Comment
   Personal Consumption  1.6 3.0 2.5 Consumers cautious and savings ratio is rising
   Government Consumption 3.9 6.4 4.0 Govt spending corporate tax windfall
   Capital Formation  -31.0 6.2 6.7 High volatility
   -  Building and Construction  16.5  15.9  11.0 Growth gradually easing
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles -41.4 7.1 9.5 Huge swings in Intangibles and aircraft
  Stocks (% of GDP)  1.3  0.5  0.4  
  Exports 7.8 8.9 7.0 Contract manufacturing big impact
  Imports  -9.4 7.0 9.0 Import surge on Intangibles and aircraft
  GDP  7.2  6.7 5.0 Domestic spending vulnerable to Brexit
  GNP 4.4 5.9 5.5  
         
  Final Domestic Demand  -13.3 4.8 5.2 Distorted by investment volatility
  GDP (€bn)  294.1  318.5 333.6  
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  2.9  1.8 Job creation slowed in h2 2018
   Unemployment rate (%)  6.7 5.8 5.4 Unemployment recently revised higher
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.4 0.5 1.1 Sterling deflationary impact to fade
   HICP (% change)
0.3 0.7 1.1  Remarkably low relative to Euro average
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
68.4 64.5 62.8 Ratio flattered by surge in GDP
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
-0.2 -0.1 -0.1