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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated following  2018 Q1 GDP release

Real GDP (% change) 2017  2018(e)  2019(f) Comment
   Personal Consumption  1.6 3.0  2.5 Lagging strong income growth
   Government Consumption 3.9 3.5 3.0 Austerity over
   Capital Formation  -31.0 1.5 6.7 High volatility
   -  Building and Construction  16.5  13.5  10.0 Strong rise in house building from low base
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles -41.4 -4.0  5.0 Huge swings in Intangibles
  Stocks (% of GDP)  1.3  1.0  0.6  
  Exports 7.8 6.0 5.0 Contract manufacturing big impact
  Imports  -9.4 2.5 5.5 Service imports volatile
  GDP  7.2  6.5 3.6 Lower base effect in 2018 following revisions
  GNP  4.4 6.4 4.2 Higher profit outflows
         
  Final Domestic Demand  -13.3 2.2 3.5 Distorted by investment volatility
  GDP (€bn)  294.1  317.6 334.2 2017 revised down
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  2.8  2.2 Broad based job creation
   Unemployment rate (%)  6.7 5.5 4.8 Downside surprise in 2018
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.4 0.6 1.8 Sterling deflationary impact to fade
   HICP (% change)
0.3 0.8 1.8  Remarkably low relative to Euro average
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
68.4 63.4 59.8 Ratio flattered by surge in GDP
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 Cyclically adjusted deficit is larger