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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated following  2017 Q4 GDP release

Real GDP (% change) 2016  2017  2018 Comment
   Personal Consumption  3.3 1.9  2.5 Surprisingly soft in 2017 and weak end to year
   Government Consumption 5.3 1.8 2.5 Deflator rising
   Capital Formation  61.2  -22.3 7.5 High volatility
   -  Building and Construction  18.4  16.5  12.5 Strong rise in house building
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles 76.7 -51.7  5.0 Huge swings in Intangibles
  Stocks (% of GDP)  1.0  1.0  0.5  
  Exports 4.6 6.9 7.5 Contract manufacturing very important
  Imports  16.4 -6.2 6.2 Weaker service imports in 2017
  GDP  5.1  7.8 7.0 Big upward revison to 2018
  GNP  9.6 6.6 7.0 Firms domiciling in Ireland impacting
         
  Final Domestic Demand  21.4 -8.0  4.2 Distorted by investment volatility
  GDP (€bn)  275.6  296.2 318.0 Up €100bn since 2014
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  2.9  2.5 Broad based job creation
   Unemployment rate (%)  8.4 6.7  5.8 Approaching full employment
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.0 0.4 1.4 Sterling deflationary impact to fade
   HICP (% change)
-0.2 0.3 1.8  
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
72.8 68.4 65.9 Ratio flattered by surge in GDP
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
-0.7 -0.3 -0.2 Cyclically adjusted deficit is larger