Irish Macro Economic Forecasts
Updated following 2019 q1 GDP release
| Real GDP (% change) | 2018 | 2019(e) |
2020(f) | Comment |
| Personal Consumption | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | Consumers cautious and savings ratio rising |
| Government Consumption | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | Govt spending corporate tax windfall |
| Capital Formation | -21.1 | -1.0 | 8.3 | High volatility |
| - Building and Construction | 12.5 | 7.0 | 5.0 | Growth gradually easing |
| - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles | -30.4 | -6.0 | 10.0 | Huge swings in Intangibles and aircraft |
| Stocks (% of GDP) | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
| Exports | 10.4 | 12.0 | 7.0 | Contract manufacturing big impact |
| Imports | -2.9 | 12.0 | 8.0 | volatility reflects capital formation |
| GDP | 8.2 | 5.6 | 4.5 | Brexit a key risk |
| GNP | 4.4 | 5.9 | 5.5 | |
| Final Domestic Demand | -8.6 | 1.8 | 4.4 | Distorted by investment volatility |
| GDP (€bn) | 324.0 | 338.6 | 359.5 | |
| Labour Market | ||||
| Employment (% change) | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.2 | Very strong job creation in q1 2019 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 5.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 | At or near full employment |
| Inflation | ||||
| CPI (% change) |
0.5 | 1.0 | 1.8 | Sterling deflationary impact to fade |
| HICP (% change) |
0.7 | 1.0 | 1.8 | Remarkably low relative to Euro average |
| Fiscal Indicators |
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| Government Debt ( % of GDP) |
63.6 | 61.9 | 57.3 | Ratio flattered by surge in GDP |
| General Government Balance (% of GDP) |
0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2020 deficit if hard Brexit |