Irish real GDP contracted in the first quarter, by 2.1%, and the latest CSO data shows a modest 0.6% recovery in q2. Nominal GDP fell however, by 1.0%, which followed a 5.6% decline in the first quarter. Consequently, the consensus forecast for nominal GDP in 2016 is probably too high as indeed are forecasts for real growth of 4.9% and the coming weeks are likely to see some downward revisions.
Consumer spending was weak in the second quarter, declining by 0.5% in volume terms, and business spending on machinery and equipment also fell, by over 10%. Exports, too, declined, albeit marginally. This broad weakness was offset by a 5% rise in construction and a surge in spending on R&D ( including patents and licences) which is classed under ‘intangibles’ . The latter component is extraordinarily volatile and actually more than doubled in the quarter alone ( +113%) , and as such was the main factor behind the 39% rise in total investment spending. These intangibles are largely multinational and often purchased from parent companies abroad, so imports also rose strongly in the quarter, by 12%. There was also a postive stock build, adding 1.3% to GDP, although the sum of the components imply that real GDP actually fell, with a large statistical adjustment accounting for the positive growth figure.
On an annual basis real growth in q2 emerged at 4%, and the first quarter figure was revised up to 3.9% so giving an average for the half year also around 4%. Real GDP rose by 5.5% in the final two quarters of 2015 and that base effect implies that annual growth may slow substantially in the second half of 2016, with the average for the year likely to be well below the 4.9% assumed by the Government.
Similarly, the nominal level of GDP in 2016 is also likely to be lower than anticipated, largely because export prices are falling . Consequently, nominal GDP only grew by an annual 0.5% in q2 , which followed a 1.5% rise in q1. On that basis nominal GDP may be largely unchanged in 2016 or indeed may even decline, with implications for the debt and deficit ratios.
Overall, a mixed bag. The real economy avoided recession , which was a risk given falls in retail sales and industrial production in q2, but deflation has re-emerged, via export prices.