Irish GDP grows at average annual 5.5% in H1.

The available labour data shows that Irish employment continued to grow very strongly in the first quarter of the year (by an annual 3.5%) and the decline in the unemployment rate since implies that  pattern is still intact. One would expect GDP growth to be stronger, given normal productivity growth, and although the Irish quarterly GDP figures are extremely volatile, the picture from the National Accounts  is  broadly consistent with the employment data; annual GDP growth in q2 was 5.8%, following a 5.2% rise in q1, to give an average for the first half of the year of 5.5%.The figure for the full year is likely to be lower, given the surge in reported GDP in the latter part of 2016, and we expect around 4%.

On a quarterly basis GDP expanded by 1.4% following a revised 3.5% contraction in q1. The latter reflected a plunge in investment spending, mainly related to mulinational R&D , and that reversed in q2, duly accounting for most of the rise in GDP. Consumer spending actually fell, by 1.1%, and on the published national accounts consumer spending is now only 34% of GDP and only marginally ahead of capital spending- in most developed economies the former is well above 50%.

The CSO now publishes a separate figure , Modified Domestic Demand, to give a better picture of underlying spending and output in the Irish economy, as it strips out multinational flows into R&D and aircraft leasing . On that metric real demand grew by an annual 4.2% in q2 following a 5.8% rise in q1, so the average increase over H1 is  still a very healthy 5.2%, indicating that the underlying economic performance remains strong. One puzzle is  limp  consumer spending, averaging growth of  just 1.8%, which is modest given the strength of employment growth alongside 2% growth in pay. and zero inflation. Domestic investment spending is expanding at a robust pace, in contrast, with annual growth averaging 15% over the first half of the year, albeit hiding a mixed performance, with buoyant construction offsetting a  fall in domestic spending on machinery and equipment.

Overall, it would seem that the Irish economy continues to expand at a robust pace, if one discounts the extraordinary short-term volatility and adjusts for the distortions caused by the sheer scale of the multinational flows.

Irish growth surge begs questions about upcoming Budget

The Irish economy is now growing at a very rapid pace, both in real and nominal terms, and much faster than envisaged by consensus forecasts or by the Irish Government when framing the 2015  or indeed  the 2016 Budget.  Real GDP grew by 1.9% in the second quarter,  leaving the annual increase at 6.7%, while  first quarter growth was revised up to 2.1% and the annual change to 7.2%. That means that  growth averaged 7.0% over the first half of 2015  so forecasts for the year as a whole are likely to move up to at least  6% or higher. Moreover, nominal GDP is soaring, rising by an average  12.5% in the first half of the year, and GDP for 2015 may exceed €210bn,  implying a General Government debt ratio below 100%, from 107.6% last year.

The initial recovery in the Irish economy was driven by exports but of late domestic demand, which is more labour intensive, has moved to the fore. The external trade data  is still extremely strong,  albeit affected by recent Balance of Payments  (BoP) changes, and while exports  still greatly exceed imports in absolute terms,  import growth is now outpacing, so reducing or even eliminating the positive  contribution of trade to GDP. In q2 imports rose by 6.3%  so  exactly offsetting the impact of  a  5.4% increase in exports. Looking at the annual change in q2, export growth of 13.6% was dwarfed by a 16.9% rise in imports, resulting in a  negative (-0.4%) contribution to GDP.

Domestic demand was generally expected to pick up in 2015 but  the data has also  surprised, with the second quarter seeing a 4.8% rise, leaving the annual increase at an extraordinary 10.1%. Investment spending was the main driver, rising by over 19% in the quarter and by 34% over the year. Construction output is growing but the main factor was a surge in spending on machinery and equipment, although this is very volatile, particularly given the influence of aircraft orders. One puzzling feature in terms of the other components of demand is the performance of consumer spending, which has also picked up but at a slower pace than indicated by retail sales; consumption rose by just 0.4% in q2  and the annual increase slowed to 2.8% from 3.7% in q1.

Commentary on the national accounts often includes caveats about the GDP numbers, with some preferring GNP , the income of Irish residents, as a better measure. Yet growth is also extremely strong using that metric, averaging 6.7% over the first half of the year, although multinational profit outflows did pick up in q2 and the differential between the two measures may widen over the rest of the year.

Irish GDP is now  5.7 % above the previous peak but the unexpected strength of activity in 2015 raises a number of policy issues. On the face of it the economy is growing at a rapid clip and  employment is rising strongly , which would not signal the need for a further boost  to demand from fiscal policy in 2016, particularly as monetary policy is extraordinarily easy and the exchange rate has depreciated. The Government has already received advice from a variety of quarters urging little or no stimulus and the GDP  figures might serve to reinforce such views. Against that, CPI inflation is around zero, wages are only beginning to rise, credit is still contracting and Ireland ran a BoP surplus of  €4.3bn over the first half of the year, a picture hardly consistent with an overheating economy.

There is also an election due within six months, of course, but times have changed in that the Government is now constrained by EU fiscal rules, including one which limits the growth in real exchequer spending to the growth in potential GDP. The latter figure  is determined by the European Commission (EC), using a 10-year average ( including estimates of the current year and forecasts four year ahead) and as it currently stands it means virtually  zero growth in real spending in the 2016 Budget. This  real limit is translated into a cash figure by using the EC’s forecast for price rises across the economy ( the GDP deflator) which is currently  1.6%,  giving a permitted  expenditure figure of €1.3bn to allocate between spending increases and tax cuts.

Yet the GDP deflator is currently rising at an annual 5.2%, so the 1.6%  forecast for 2016 looks too low. Moreover, the potential growth rate  forecast also looks less credible, given the 2015 data. For example, Ireland’s potential growth rate for the year  was put at 2.8% , which implies that the economy may currently be operating 3-4% above capacity, given that the EC assumed  the economy was around full employment in 2014, which  is not consistent with the  observed wage and price behaviour.

There is now little more than a month to the 2016 Budget, so interesting times ahead, although whatever transpires, a buoyant economy can no longer translate into the tax and spending package we might have seen in the past.

 

 

Irish GDP surges, impressing the Government but not consumers

Ireland’s quarterly GDP figures are volatile and often surprise, with the latest no exception; the economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 1.5% in q2, following a 2.8% expansion in the first quarter, the latter revised up marginally from the initial release. That surge in Irish output left the annual growth in real GDP in q2 at an extraordinary 7.7% and means that in the absence of revisions the average growth rate for 2014 as a whole would average 5% even if GDP was to remain flat in the second half of the year. The consensus growth forecast has moved steadily higher as the year  has unfolded , from an initial 2% to around 3%, but this latest data will no doubt prompt a further substantial upgrade- the Finance Minister has already mentioned 4.5% and that requires a fall over the second half of the year. Some commentators prefer GNP as a better measure of economic activity in Ireland (it adjusts for net  external flows of profits, interest and dividends) but that tells a similar story-indeed, the annual GNP  growth rate in q2 was 9%, although base effects in the second half may mean that the annual  GNP growth rate in 2014 will also be around 5%.

The monthly external trade data had implied a strong  merchandise export performance in q2 (the Patent Cliff impact on chemicals appears to be over, at least for now) but the national accounts included  even stronger figures,  which alongside a better performance from service exports resulted in a 13% annual increase in export volume. Import growth was also very strong, at 11.8%, but such is the dominance of exports (now 117% of GDP)  that annual GDP growth would have been 4% even if the other components made no contribution.

In the event they all contributed. Investment rose by 18.5% on the year, adding 2.5 percentage points to GDP growth, following strong gains in construction output and spending on machinery and equipment. Government spending  also rose , and by a puzzling 7.9% in volume terms, which sits uneasily with the idea of spending cuts and fiscal austerity and may reflect problems with the price deflator. The third component of domestic  demand, personal consumption, also rose, but by a modest 1.8%, and even that was flattered by base effects from last year as the quarterly increase in q2  this year was just 0.3% following a meagre 0.2% rise in q1. It is clear from other data sources that Irish households are still  paying down debt at a steady clip and it is impossible to say when this deleveraging will end. Employment growth has also slowed sharply in 2014 and in the absence of a marked change in household  behaviour personal consumption growth in 2014 is likely to be nearer to 1% than the 2% many expected.

Such is the volatility  and unpredictability of exports and investment that real GDP  growth in 2014  could be over 6% or nearer 4%, but we currently expect  5%.Export prices are falling, as is the deflator of government spending, and for that reason the rise in nominal GDP this year may be less than that recorded for real GDP – we expect 4%.That would give a nominal GDP figure  in 2014 of €182bn but still substantially above the €171bn forecast in the 2014 Budget. Tax receipts are also  running well ahead of target and so we now expect the General Government deficit for the year to emerge at 3.4% of GDP compared with the 4.9% originally forecast by the Government. The implication is that a fiscal adjustment of the order of €2bn in 2015, as originally envisaged and still advocated by the Fiscal Advisory Council (although the Council’s latest paper did  not take account of the q2 GDP figures), would probably push the deficit well below 2% of GDP and therefore comfortably under  the 3% target set by the Excessive Deficit procedure. The  strength of tax receipts had moved the Government towards a much smaller adjustment in any case  but the latest GDP figures appear to have convinced them to abandon austerity and at worse go for a neutral budget, with tax cuts funded by higher taxes elsewhere, mainly the Water Charge.

Irish household wealth is rising but debt repayment ongoing

Mario Draghi may be doing his best to encourage European consumers to borrow and spend but the evidence in Ireland still points to ongoing deleveraging, despite rising household wealth. The debt burden is now falling steadily, however, in contrast to the situation over recent years, but is still extremely high by international standards and it is anyone’s guess when the deleveraging process will come to a close.

The Irish Central bank publishes financial accounts data which tracks each sector’s assets and liabilities and the figures for the first quarter have just been released. Loans to households fell by €1.9bn in q1, bringing the total decline since the peak in mid-2008 to over €39bn. That deleveraging has dwarfed any new lending, which explains why the outstanding amount of personal credit is still falling despite a pick up in new loans. The absolute debt figure is now back to the level last seen in mid-2006.

Of more significance is the debt burden, which is generally expressed relative to disposable income. On that metric the burden peaked at 218% in late 2009 but did not fall materially for some time after that despite deleveraging because household income, the denominator, was also falling, reflecting rising unemployment, falling wages and an increase in the tax burden. Income finally stabilized  in 2012, ( although it is still volatile even on the four quarter total used by the Central Bank ) and has started to inch higher, so the debt ratio has started to fall at a steady clip, declining to 182% in the first quarter of 2014 from 185% in the previous quarter and 198% a year earlier. The household debt burden is now also back at 2006 levels, although a long way above the 133% recorded a decade ago.

Households are reducing their liabilities but their financial assets are climbing, and indeed have been rising for the past five years, largely reflecting growth in the value of assets held in pension and insurance funds. Household’s financial assets amounted to €339bn in q1, leaving net financial worth of €165bn, a record, and some €100bn above that recorded at the nadir of the financial crash.

Most Irish household wealth is in the form of housing, however, and when that is added we arrive at a  total net worth figure of €509bn. The housing component actually fell in the quarter ( national house prices declined in q1) and wealth  is still some €200bn below the peak but it has recovered by €50bn over the past year.

House prices rose again in q2 so that alongside the pick up in house building ( up an annual 37% in h1) will have boosted wealth  in recent months. The data on bank lending implies that debt repayment has remained a feature as well so the net household wealth figure will probably record a further rise in q2. Rising wealth is generally seen as positive for consumer spending but we have never seen the pace of deleveraging evident in Ireland of late (households have been net lenders rather than borrowers for over five years now) and we do not know how long that will continue to dampen personal consumption.

Irish Consumer Confidence is a puzzle

Irish consumer confidence , as measured monthly by the ESRI/KBC index,  has risen sharply over the past year and is now back at levels last seen in early 2007,  i.e. before the financial crisis and subsequent plunge in Irish employment and economic activity. The economic situation in Ireland has  certainly improved of late but the scale of the change appears at odds with the buoyant confidence readings and is difficult to explain.

The index is compiled from a telephone survey of households and is based on a number of questions involving the respondents own economic situation and perceptions of the broader economic backdrop. The series is volatile and is best viewed as a three-month moving average and on that basis  over the past  decade  has ranged from over 100  (during 2004 and 2005) to around 40, the low recorded in mid- 2008. Confidence subsequently picked up to a high of 66 in mid-2010 before plunging back below 50 around the bail-out and  entry of the Troika later that year. A slow and uneven recovery ensued but the past twelve months has seen a marked acceleration, with the index currently standing at 85 from around 60 in the spring of last year.

As noted, this is now at levels last seen some seven years ago but the economic backdrop then was very different. The economy was at full employment, for example, with the unemployment rate at 4.5% against 11.7% now, although the latter has fallen from a peak of over 15%. Inflation was much higher back then, at around 5%, as against the current 0.3%, but the Misery index (the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate) was still lower , at 9.6 versus 12 today. Wages were also growing strongly in 2007, by 5% per annum, in contrast to the falls recorded in recent years ,and of course disposable income has also been hit by tax increases since 2008.

The index is thought to have  a close relationship with retail sales and consumer spending but again the picture is very different in the two periods; real personal consumption was growing at an annual rate of some 7% in the first quarter of 2007 but the most recent figure, for the final quarter of 2013, showed a 1.1% fall in consumption. Spending probably turned positive again in the first quarter but most forecasters envisage a 2% rise in 2014 at best,  far from the pace recorded when confidence was  last at similar levels.

It may well be that the index is responding in an exaggerated manner to specific variables, such as the rise in house prices ( which is not positive for everyone), or simply reflecting relief that the economic situation is not as dire as was the case in 2008-2010, and that the economic outlook, although still cloudy, is at least somewhat clearer than  appeared at the worst of the crisis. It is also possible that the consensus is wrong and that spending will surprise to the upside so supporting the confidence index as a useful forward indicator of spending. Time will tell on that issue but it does seem clearer that another observed relationship involving the index has indeed broken down, at least for now- the correlation between consumer confidence and support for the government. In general, strong readings in confidence tended to go hand in hand with strong support for the sitting government, as captured by opinion polls, but that relationship appears to have well and truly splintered of late , as the confidence surge over the past year has not translated into a  boost for the  government in the polls.

Irish household savings ratio continues it decline

The household savings ratio, the percentage of disposable income not spent on personal consumption, can be seen as a residual in the national accounts and in Ireland’s case is subject to sizeable revisions. Consequently it is not a robust  base for an economic projection yet many  forecasts are in part predicated on changes in the ratio and the widely held expectation that Irish consumer spending will pick up this year and next  explicitly or implicitly assumes a fall in the ratio i.e. that households will make a conscious decision to spend more from a given income. In fact, as the latest CSO figures reveal, the ratio has been falling steadily since 2009, and that against a backdrop of a declining trend in consumer spending.

The CSO figures refer to gross savings which are defined as that fraction of gross disposable income not spent, so it does not equate directly with a flow of money into savings products. The use of income to repay debt, for example, would class as saving on that definition, and we know from other sources that households have in fact been deleveraging for some time. The decision to save is also likely to be influenced by a host of other factors including interest rates, changes in the tax system, inflation and the state of the economy, with high and rising unemployment often seen as a catalyst for higher savings as households react to uncertainty. Similarly, an improvement in the economic climate and a decline in unemployment is viewed by forecasters as likely to precipitate a fall in the savings ratio and hence generate a rise in consumer spending above that indicated by the change in disposable income.

Gross savings fell in Ireland  at the peak of the boom, declining to under €6bn in 2007, but rose sharply over the following two years following the onset of the economic and financial crisis, exceeding €15bn by 2009. Savings in that year amounted to over 16% of disposable income (against a ratio of only 6% a few year earlier) but  the ratio declined steadily from there and fell back into single figures last year, at 9.4%.

The actual amount saved annually has also fallen steadily, to just over €8bn last year, but Irish households have also seen a significant decline in disposable income , which fell again marginally in 2013 to under €87bn from a peak of €102bn in 2008. Consumer spending has also fallen since the peak of the boom and the decline is therefore not driven by a rise in household saving- the weakness in consumption over recent years clearly reflects pressure on household incomes rather than any surge in precautionary savings. Indeed, the  fall in the savings ratio can be seen as households seeking to contain the fall in consumption by dipping in to savings.The savings ratio is still higher than it was prior to the crash, it must be said,  but is probably not the font for additional spending envisaged by many forecasters, including the IMF. The scale of data revisions also cautions against hanging any projection for an upturn in consumption on a change in the ratio.