Strong new mortgage lending but cash still king in housing market.

The number of new loans for Irish  house purchase topped 8,000 in the the third quarter , according to new data from the BPFI, the highest quarterly total in nine years, with the value figure of €1.8bn also the strongest since late 2008.The average new loan is now €221,000, which is substantially above the €170,000 cycle low recorded in 2013, albeit still well shy of the pre crash peak in excess of €280,000. In fact new lending is  also finally offsetting debt repayment and net mortgage lending  turned positive in the quarter for the first time since early 2010 according to figures from the Central Bank.

So the current housing cycle has been unusual in that it has occurred against a backdrop of  an overall contraction in  credit. Moreover, new lending for house purchase still appears to be accounting for only  50% of housing transactions; the CSO data base shows around 15,500 transactions (filings) in q3, which is almost double the number of mortgage drawdowns. The year to date figures reveal a similar picture, with 20,716 new loans for house purchase set againt over 43,000 in turnover, implying that over 52% of transactions are either cash buyers or have access to a credit source other than Irish mortgage lenders.

The approvals data also suggests that mortgage buyers are being squeezed in the market; approvals  for house purchase exceeded 20,000 in the six months to end- Sept but less than 15,000 were actually drawn down, an unusually low ratio. So potential buyers may be being outbid by investors amid general excess demand. The CSO’s monthly residential price index would certainly indicate that upward pressures are still very much in evidence; annual  house price inflation nationally accelerated to 12.8% in September and 13.2% excluding Dublin. Price inflation in the capital is re-accelerating again after a softer period last winter and the 12.2% annual increase in September brought the total rise from the cycle low to 87%.

Prices nationally are up some 70% since the low in early 2013 and the average new mortgage  has risen 30% in that period, again implying that credit has not been a significant factor in driving the market. Indeed, it would appear that the Central Bank’s mortgage controls have certainly not had a material impact on house prices overall, given the influence of non-credit factors, although they may well have impacted expectations around the announcement period.As we have argued elsewhere  (http://danmclaughlin.ie/blog/qe-is-fuelling-irish-house-prices/) the broader financial backdrop, notably the ECB’s asset purchase programme , has impacted the market by pushing down the rate of return on alternative assets and boosting investor interest in property markets.

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Dan McLaughlin

Economics Lecturer and Commentator