Irish GDP grew by 5.5% in 2019 but consumer spending surprisingly weak.

Irish real GDP grew by 5.5% in 2019, a slowdown from the 8.2% recorded the previous year. The nominal value of GDP rose by 7.2% and now stands at €347bn, which is double the level seen in 2012, a surge which has precipitated a huge fall in the Government debt ratio, which probably ended 2019 at 58.6% and hence  below the 60% limit as set out in the EU’s Stability and Growth pact.

The growth outcome was actually  below consensus expectations ( the Central Bank expected 6.1% and the Department of Finance 6.3%) despite a strong 1.8% increase in the final quarter and this was in part due to downward revisons to growth in the earlier part of the year. This included consumer spending, which is now seen to have risen by only 2.8% in 2019 , with the annual change slowing sharply to only 2.0% in the final quarter. Given booming employment and  stronger wage growth the implication is that precautionary savings rose, as also indicated by the growth in household bank deposits. In contrast, Government consumption was revised up and grew by 5.6%, or double that of personal consumption, a rare combination.

In terms of the other components of domestc demand , building and construction grew by 6.8% in 2019, with housebuilding up 18%, but the pace of expansion is slowing, as might be expected given the small starting base of completions. Spending on housing improvements surprisingly fell but spending on non-residential building continued to grow, by 9%. The prevailing uncertainty about Brexit last year also impacted spending by domestic firms on machinery and equipment, which fell by 15%, with the result that what the CSO deem modified capital formation (total investment excluding the impact of multinationals on various components) rose by just 1.3%, which with the sluggish increase in consumer spending meant that modified domestic demand grew by just 3%  from 4.7% in 2018.

That concept is a CSO  construct and the actual GDP  figure as recognised internationally includes all spending on investment, including aircraft leasing and that undertaken by multinationals on R&D (captured as Intangibles), which can be both enormous and extremely volatile relative to the small scale of the underlying Irish economy. In 2019 Intangibles alone rose by over €70bn, or  270% with the result that overall capital formation increased by an extraordinary 94% having fallen by 21% the previous year.On the face of then, Capital Formation now accounts for over 40% of Irish GDP, with consumer spending less than a third, an unusual if not unique configuration.

That Intangibles figure is broadly neutral for GDP  however, as virtually all of it  is captured as a service import , so total imports rose very strongly in 2019, by 35%. Exports continued to perform strongly , rising by over 11%, so massively outperforming the growth in global trade, but the result was a large Balance of Payments deficit of €33bn or 9.5% of GDP. Normally a large deficit like that would imply problems, in that  the  economy is consuming more than it is producing but in Ireland’s case is a useless indicator.

The  economy finished the year strongly according to the GDP data, despite the weak consumer, with the quarterly increase of 1.8% bringing the annual change in q4 to 6.2%. This therfore provides a strong positive carryover into 2020 but there are fresh risks alongside the ongoing possibility of a no-deal Brexit. One is political (it is still unclear if a governmnet will be formed or that an election will be required) but the most pressing now is the economic impact of  COVID-19. That may be domestic ( reduced consumer spending and a supply side hit to output across all sectors) , external ( a global recession ) and/or company specific. The latter tends to be overlooked, but the impact of contract manufacturing on Irish exports is substantial; total merchandise exports in 2019 amounted to €227bn, against €144bn actually shipped from Ireland, with the difference largely deemed to be accounted for by production in China. On that basis the first quarter export figure could be a shock.

 

 

Published by

Dan McLaughlin

Economics Lecturer and Commentator