Are estimates of Irish housing demand far too high?

The consensus view on Irish housing is that demand exceeds supply by a considerable margin and that the gap is closing, which many conclude is the key factor in the clear deceleration in residential property price inflation seen over the past year. Yet the increase in supply is not that pronounced and it may well be that demand is not as  substantial as generally believed, particularly into the medium term..

The latest figures on housing completions from the CSO, covering the second quarter of the year, show a half- year total of 9,100  which implies the full year figure will be above the 18,000 recorded in 2018,  albeit pointing to a outturn below 21,000. Supply is therefore still rising but at a sluggish pace, and certainly still a long way from the 30,000-35,000 widely seen as a good estimate of the annual demand over the medium term.

That figure is largely based on projections for household formation but there is an obvious circularity in that households are defined as occupying a house or an apartment. In other words  housing supply creates household formation so  the latter is not an independent estimate of demand. For example, the number of  households in Ireland rose by just 48,000 in the five years to the 2016 census, or by less than 10,000 per annum, but the numbers living in those households increased by 166,000, indicating a rise in the average household size. Housing demand projections  generally assume that the size of households will fall over the medium term.

So household formation averaging 30,000 or more a year implicitly assumes  housing supply around that figure , and lower supply would mean lower household formation. A look at the latest population projections by the CSO also gives food for thought. On the assumption of unchanged fertility and an annual net migrant inflow of 30,000 per year the population between 25 and 44 increases by just 8,000 in total by 2025, with the numbers between 30 and 40 years old declining sharply. If migration was much lower, at 10,000 per annum, and fertility declined, the CSO projection shows a 100,000 fall in the 25-44 age group which is the cohort one generally associates with house purchase and household formation.

If supply is the main determinant of demand  the recent data on planning permissions, showing a fall in the annual figure to below 29,000, casts doubt on whether supply will exceed 30,000 a year and , if so , household formation will be much lower than the received wisdom. The average number per household may in fact continue to rise .

 

Published by

Dan McLaughlin

Economics Lecturer and Commentator