Data on most aspects of the Irish housing market are now available for the first quarter of 2017 and generally supports the conventional view that supply is below that required to cater for the growing demand, albeit also implying that policies designed to influence the market may not be working as intended.
Take rents. There is now a 4% annual cap on rents in designated ‘pressure zones’ and rental inflation, as captured monthly in the Consumer Price Index, appears to be slowing, with the annual increase easing to 7.9%, the slowest pace in three and a half years. The CSO data, and that from the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB) , captures actual rents paid and both are closely correlated over time with the rent index published by Daft,ie, which is based on asking rents . The trend is similar on all three indices but the Daft index was weaker that the RTB during the recession, indicating that landlords were having to offer lower rents to attract new tenants. The reverse is now the case, with Daft’s index rising at a double digit annual pace and therefore outstripping the RTB, implying that new tenants are having to pay a premium relative to those with existing leases.
House prices are still rising at a brisk annual pace, again supporting the excess demand thesis; the March figure for Dublin was 8.2% and for the rest of the country 11.8% . The CSO index is revised, however, and that pace is not as rapid as previously published. Indeed, prices ex Dublin rose by just 0.9% in the first quarter, implying a slowdown , although the March figure may be revised, this time upward.
The Government is seeking to support the First Time Buyer (FTB) with the Help to Buy Scheme ( a tax rebate for FTBs purchasing a new home) and the Central Bank has eased its mortgage controls to allow greater leverage. Yet the CSO Filings data on transactions for the first quarter show that there was just 1445 new homes sold (defined as previously unoccupied) and that FTBs accounted for only 253 purchases or 17% of the total. In Dublin, FTBs secured just 80 of the 779 new homes sold, or 10%. Moreover, it is not Movers dominating this market; Investors ( non-household buyers) bought two-thirds of new homes sold in Dublin, and 48% of the total nationally.
The mortgage data also indicates that FTB’s and indeed Movers are finding it difficult to secure properties. Mortgage approvals for house purchase have been averaging over 8,000 in recent quarters yet the drawdown in q1 was only 5,853, an unusually low figure relative to approvals, again suggesting that buyers with mortgage approval may be being outbid by investors. The ‘risk-free’ rate of return in Ireland,. as proxied by the 10-year Government bond yield, is less than 1% so FTBs are having to compete for a scarce commodity with those attracted by a rental yield in excess of 5.5%. Total mortgage drawdowns appears to account for only 45% of first quarter transactions, so this is not a credit-driven market.