We do not as yet have full-year data for the Irish housing market in 2016 but the main developments are clear enough. Transactions remain low, with stamp duty filings some 5% down over the first ten months, implying an annual outturn below the previous year’s 50,000. The later indicates a turnover rate of just 2.5%, against perhaps 3.5%-4% in a more normal market. New mortgage lending did recover a little in 2016, after a marked slowdown in response to the Central Bank’s controls, but the pick up was modest; total lending was an estimated €5.4bn with the number of mortgages for house purchase at some 24,500, or less than 1,000 ahead of 2015. Housing supply also picked up, but at an estimated 14,500 is still well below demand projections , while residential property prices showed strong momentum from mid-year and probably rose by 9-10% nationally. Dublin lagged the rest of the country ,which saw double digit price gains.
Turning to 2017, the market is again likely to be dominated by the shortage of supply relative to demand. Forecasts for the latter had centred around 25,000 a year but are now nearer 30,000, following the release of the 2016 census , showing the return of net immigration. Our supply model is based on lagged registrations ( with some adjustments) and we have pencilled in 17,000 completions for this year, a strong percentage increase on the 2016 figure but clearly still well shy of demand estimates. Moreover, the population is currently rising faster than the housing stock and that will remain the case for 2017 on our forecasts, and that implied decline in the housing stock per capita also adds to the upward pressure on house prices, which are also being supported by rising household incomes and low mortgage rates. As a result we forecast a 12% rise in prices nationally ( to end-December) absent any major demand shocks.
House prices are still below equilibrium on our fundamental model and do not look excessive relative to rents, as the latter have been rising at an annual 8-10% for some time now. This would seem to reflect the supply/ demand imbalance noted above but the Government has decided to intervene in the market by directly limiting rent increases to an annual 4% in areas where rental pressures are deemed acute. Standard economic models would suggest that such controls may be ineffective but if significant may dampen price pressures by reducing the return on rental property and hence its attractiveness as an investment.
Mortgage affordability remains extremely supportive on our model. although 2017 may see some modest deterioration, via a combination of higher average mortgages and a mild pick up in mortgage rates, given the recent rise in longer term interest rates. Nevertheless, affordability will still be better than the long run average and we forecast a significant rise in new lending, driven by the increase in house completions.The Central Bank’s surprise decision to ease mortgage controls in 2017 ( they did not appear to be binding) will also allow increased leverage, and First Time Buyers can also avail of the Help to Buy scheme to bolster the required deposit, so bringing forward housing demand.
In sum, the number of new mortgages for house purchase is projected at 30,000, and a value of €6.4bn, with total new mortgage lending ( i.e. including top ups and re-mortgaging) rising to €7.2bn. That would be the highest figure since 2009, and another step towards what one might call a normally functioning housing market.