The Irish Government has just published the annual Stability Programme Update, incorporating macro-economic projections out to 2020 and a forecast of the fiscal position over that period. The figures indicate that this Administration has the scope to deliver some further modest tax reductions in the 2016 Budget, and no doubt that will garner the most column inches, but a key feature of the text is the degree to which EU fiscal rules will remain a constraint for Irish Budgetary policy.
The near term economic and fiscal outlook certainly looks brighter than it appeared in last year’s Update, or indeed at the presentation of the 2015 Budget (in October last year). Tax receipts are running well ahead of target and the Department of Finance now expects a €1bn overshoot, which appears conservative. Non-tax receipts have also surprised to the upside , thanks to a higher Central Bank surplus, and debt interest is now expected to be substantially lower than initially forecast. Capital receipts are also likely to be well ahead of the Budget projection, with the result that the Exchequer deficit ( the cash sum that it needs to borrow ) is now forecast at €3.5bn instead of the initial €6.5bn. The impact on the General Government deficit is not as large ( some of the unplanned capital receipts are excluded ) and that is now expected to come in at €4.6bn, or some 2.3% of GDP , against a Budget target of 2.7%.
Surprisingly, perhaps, the Department has resisted the temptation to materially revise its previous growth forecasts; real GDP in 2015 is now projected to increase by 4% instead of 3.9%, with 2016 now 0.4 percentage points higher, at 3.6%, but growth in each of the next two years is now expected to be 0.2 percentage points lower. Nominal GDP is forecast to rise strongly this year, up 6.9%, but by 2018 is only 1% higher than previously envisaged.
In the past greater tax buoyancy often resulted in higher exchequer spending and/or tax reductions ( ‘if I have it I’ll spend it’, to quote Charlie McCreevy) but Ireland’s membership of the euro imposes fiscal constraints. One, under the corrective arm of the Stability and Growth Pact, was the requirement to reduce the fiscal deficit to under 3% of GDP. That achieved, Ireland has now to adhere to the Preventive arm, and this imposes two constraints over the next few years.
The first is that Ireland has to move to a structural budget balance ( the actual balance adjusted for the economic cycle). According to the EU Ireland is now operating around full capacity ( a strange assumption, in truth ) so none of the actual deficit forecast for 2015 is deemed cyclical. Hence the structural deficit is projected at 2.6% and under the rules Ireland has to reduce that by at least 0.5% of GDP each year.
A second rule, designed to complement the first, limits the amount the government can spend. Certain items are excluded from the requirement, such as debt interest, capital spending and some unemployment benefits , which in Ireland’s case means that €66bn falls under the with the limit, from a grand total of €73bn. The former can only grow in line with the potential growth rate of the economy or in Ireland’s case at a lower rate in order to ensure that the structural deficit declines. That potential growth rate is in turn calculated periodically by the EU, and it appeared that the existing formula would leave the Government with little room to manoeuvre in the 2016 Budget ( with little ‘fiscal space’ in economic jargon) . However, the EU has now been persuaded to update potential growth estimates on an annual basis and although spending is still constrained the permitted rate of spending growth in Ireland has increased, to 1.6%, and it now appears that the Government has around €1.3bn in terms of ‘fiscal space’, or around €1bn more than envisaged a few months ago, Those additional resources , according to the Minister for Finance, will be used to increase spending by around €0.6bn in 2016 while also reducing taxation by a similar amount.
One issue is that the structural deficit is only projected to decline by 0.4 percentage points in 2016 ,to 2.2%, which may cause problems for the EU. Further out, the Update projects that tax receipts will rise slightly faster than GDP and that the structural deficit will decline by 1% per annum in both 2017 and 2018 , before moving to surplus in the following year. Yet that outcome is achieved by assuming unchanged current spending in nominal terms, which is clearly incompatible with any real increase if inflation is anything above zero. The implication is that any Irish government, of whatever political hue, will continue to face significant fiscal constraints over the medium term, and the limited resources available will intensify the debate about the efficacy of tax cuts as against spending increases.